Impact of Floods on Natural Gas Networks
7-9 June | At the upcoming Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) Topical Conference, FRS researcher Dr Miltos Kyriakidis will present a case study on post-flood recovery dynamics of natural gas networks within the resilience context
The notion of resilience is broadly used to describe the preparedness and response of modern societies to possible internal and/or external hazards. Within this context, people at all levels of an organisation could make considerable contribution to creating resilience (or not).
One of the pillars of Europe’s welfare framework is related to energy supply and in particular to natural gas supply. It is therefore important to account for the preparedness and recovery dynamics of the natural gas network against potential hazards. Among such hazards, floods have repeatedly disrupted natural gas supply.
In this presentation, Dr Miltos Kyriakidis will discuss a case study on the impact of floods on natural gas network in the area of Greater Leipzig in Germany. It will include analyses of the network’s recovery dynamics, taking into account the decisions and actions of the relevant stakeholders, such as gas providers and suppliers.
Based on the network’s operating procedures, the study defined different scenarios of response subsequent to a flood event. These scenarios were developed primarily based on the decisions of stakeholders to take actions prior to the flood, e.g. to shut down some pipelines, or not.
In addition, he will discuss different recovery strategies. One method is to inspect and repair the potentially damaged and exposed pipelines in an order that the network regains the largest service performance possible in each step. Another rather intuitive approach would be to travel from one critical point to the next such that travel time is minimised.
Results of the study highlight that connectivity of the pipelines is the driver for service satisfaction. In addition, it was found that recovery is strongly associated to the preparedness of the system and that pre-emptive actions can substantially reduce overall period to recovery.
This presentation will take place at the Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) Topical Conference 2017 themed 'Human Reliability, Quantitative Human Factors and Risk Management'.